The Kyle Lohse Complex

Quote of the day: "People ask me what I do in the winter when there is no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby

Kyle Lohse had a career year last season with the St. Louis Cardinals. He finished the season with 16 wins and 3 losses and posted an E.R.A. of 2.86. On top of that, he completed his 6th season with a perfect fielding percentage. Lohse became the ace of the Cardinal rotation after veteran Chris Carpenter went down due to another shoulder injury, as well as a disappointing season from stud pitcher, Adam Wainwright. Although he didn't get any votes for the CY Young Award, there was no doubt in any one's mind that he was a huge part of the success of the Cardinals last year.
Following the end of the 2012 season, Lohse was to become a free agent and looked to be a pretty good arm for a team to sign. As other top free agents like, Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, and Micheal Bourn got signed to play for new teams, Lohse somehow still remained unsigned. Fast forward to present day and Kyle Lohse is the only top free agent remaining on the market.
Although it is an oddity for a top free agent to be on the market for so long after the season, Lohse has been in the position before. In 2007, Lohse waited until the beginning of March for the Cardinals to offer a good enough deal for him to sign. While Lohse has been in the position before, the implications for a team to sign him can be risky. Tied to Lohse is a first round draft pick. To elaborate, the team that signs Kyle Lohse or any top free agent will have to compensate a top draft pick in the upcoming player draft because Lohse denied a qualifying offer from the Cardinals for one year and $13.3 million dollars. In essence  because he wanted more money, he didn't take the offer from the Cardinals and is now unemployed.

I expect Lohse to sign withing the next couple of weeks or so. I would assume the 34 year old would want a four to five year deal so that he can retire peacefully with his next team. Granted his stuff is really good, and he deserves a lot of money but it only makes sense for Lohse to take a deal that is lower than his asking price from a team, because chances are that he isn't going to get any other offers.
There are two teams that I could see Lohse ending up with before the start of the season. The Brewers, and Rangers. The Brewers are in desperate need of another veteran arm in the starting rotation to match Yovani Gallardo. The Rangers are have the same need and have a much larger pocketbook to play around with. If the Rangers were to make a serious play to sign Lohse then it will be after a team, like the Brewers to offer him a deal first.
I think Lohse will sign a 4 year, $30 million dollar deal. But his situation is the perfect example as to why a draft picks can be such an important thing for teams to hang on to. Maybe MLB needs to change the policy for the top free agents in the league, or teams will have to take the risk of giving up a draft pick in order to succeed starting the up coming season.

Questions or comments?
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