The Kyle Lohse Complex

Quote of the day: "People ask me what I do in the winter when there is no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby

Kyle Lohse had a career year last season with the St. Louis Cardinals. He finished the season with 16 wins and 3 losses and posted an E.R.A. of 2.86. On top of that, he completed his 6th season with a perfect fielding percentage. Lohse became the ace of the Cardinal rotation after veteran Chris Carpenter went down due to another shoulder injury, as well as a disappointing season from stud pitcher, Adam Wainwright. Although he didn't get any votes for the CY Young Award, there was no doubt in any one's mind that he was a huge part of the success of the Cardinals last year.
Following the end of the 2012 season, Lohse was to become a free agent and looked to be a pretty good arm for a team to sign. As other top free agents like, Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, and Micheal Bourn got signed to play for new teams, Lohse somehow still remained unsigned. Fast forward to present day and Kyle Lohse is the only top free agent remaining on the market.
Although it is an oddity for a top free agent to be on the market for so long after the season, Lohse has been in the position before. In 2007, Lohse waited until the beginning of March for the Cardinals to offer a good enough deal for him to sign. While Lohse has been in the position before, the implications for a team to sign him can be risky. Tied to Lohse is a first round draft pick. To elaborate, the team that signs Kyle Lohse or any top free agent will have to compensate a top draft pick in the upcoming player draft because Lohse denied a qualifying offer from the Cardinals for one year and $13.3 million dollars. In essence  because he wanted more money, he didn't take the offer from the Cardinals and is now unemployed.

I expect Lohse to sign withing the next couple of weeks or so. I would assume the 34 year old would want a four to five year deal so that he can retire peacefully with his next team. Granted his stuff is really good, and he deserves a lot of money but it only makes sense for Lohse to take a deal that is lower than his asking price from a team, because chances are that he isn't going to get any other offers.
There are two teams that I could see Lohse ending up with before the start of the season. The Brewers, and Rangers. The Brewers are in desperate need of another veteran arm in the starting rotation to match Yovani Gallardo. The Rangers are have the same need and have a much larger pocketbook to play around with. If the Rangers were to make a serious play to sign Lohse then it will be after a team, like the Brewers to offer him a deal first.
I think Lohse will sign a 4 year, $30 million dollar deal. But his situation is the perfect example as to why a draft picks can be such an important thing for teams to hang on to. Maybe MLB needs to change the policy for the top free agents in the league, or teams will have to take the risk of giving up a draft pick in order to succeed starting the up coming season.

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NL West Prediction

My final prediction is of the NL West. This division will go down to about the end of the season, with the top two teams making the playoffs. The West will end in a very tight race and the team with the better pitching will come away as the winner. My prediction below.

1) San Francisco Giants: The defending World Series Champions will look to win their third World Series in the last four years and will have a good chance of doing so. With one of the strongest starting rotations in all of baseball, the Giants will rely on ace Matt Cain and an incredibly underrated Madison Bumgarner to lead the team, instead of a very inconsistent offense. In order for the Giants to become a truly complete ball club, the offense needs to come together shine all season long. Catcher, Buster Posey is the future of the Giants and will hope to be the player that the offense models around.

2) Los Angles Dodgers: The Dodgers went out of their way to sign a $7 billion dollar television deal this off season, as well as signing the biggest free agent pitcher on the market, Zack Grienke. Grienke redefines the starting rotation because of the way he will compliment ace Clayton Kershaw so well. Their one two punch will be one of the best in baseball. They will strike out a lot of hitters and pitch a lot of innings. To add to the great starting rotation, the Dodgers offense will hopefully be 100% healthy again, and new players such as first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, shortstop Hanly Ramirez, and  left fielder Carl Crawford will try and communicate and gel together well with returning superstar center fielder Matt Kemp. If the Dodgers have another injury plagued season, manager, Don Mattingly will lose his job and some star players may be moved.

3) Arizona Diamondbacks: This team is young and somewhat inexperienced but the addition of Martin Prado from the Braves in the blockbuster Justin Upton deal will change all of that. Prado is a versatile player, that can play all over the diamond and hit incredibly efficiently  He will be the new leader for the D-Backs propelling them to have a record of over .500. The pitching will be the biggest question mark of the season with Heath bell apart of the relief core and the inconsistent starting pitching. Adding former Oakland Athletic, Brandon McCarthy will help a great deal but as long as the bullpen is shaky the Dbacks will do no damage in the regular season. But this team is incredibly young, I believe that they will be a force to be reckoned with in the next few years.

4) Colorado Rockies: This team isn't TOO awful in my eyes. The offense is loaded with talent even without star short stop Troy Tulowitzki. Tulu, hurt most of last season, is back healthy and looks to add a lot of production in the lineup, along with outfielders Carlos Gonzalez, and Dexter Fowler. While the offensive production is no problem, the pitching is. The Rockies did nothing this off season to bolster their horrendous pitching staff  and it will lead to another disappointing season. On a team with so much offensive talent, the Rockies upper management should have done something to help the pitching out but since they didn't,, the team will suffer a very, very slow season.

5) San Diego Padres: The Padres did absolutely nothing this off season to help a bad starting rotation and a mediocre batting lineup. Somewhat of a surprise for many fans last season when manager, Bud Black's team finished 10 games under .500. They were making a lot of noise toward the end of the season but ultimately failed to do anything. This season will be completely different. The lack of pitching depth will hurt the Padres so much that I can see them losing around 90 games and drastic changes coming in San Diego before the season ends.

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NL Central Prediction

Thought of the day: Who will have the better season? Mike Trout or Bryce Harper?

The NL Central division will end in the same order this season as this it did last season. This division has my pick as the NL Champion and a team that will contest for the second Wild Card seed. The other three teams will have mediocre to awful seasons that will result in all three of their managers getting fired. My predictions below.

1) Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are another complete team with great pitching and a dynamic offense. First off, I will make it clear and say that first baseman, Joey Votto is the best overall player in the National League. He hits for average, power, and is the most clutch player in all of baseball. His defense at first is unparalleled to every other first basemen aside from Mark Texeria of the Yankees. This season they will feature new outfielder Shin-Soo Choo and hope to have a productive season from power hitter, Jay Bruce. Moving former big time closer Aroldis Chapman to the starting rotation is a HUGE injury risk but he will compliment star, Johnny Cueto very nicely.

2) St. Louis Cardinals: The surprising team in the playoffs last year, beating out the Braves and the Nationals to make it all the way to the NL Conference championship only to lose to the future World Series champion, San Francisco Giants. There is no doubt in my mind that catcher, Yadier Molina will have another monster season, both offensively and defensively, and will become the best catcher in the game. But with the injury to veteran pitcher Chris Carpenter (AGAIN), and a somewhat healthy pitcher in Adam Wainwright, this team will finish above .500 but won't will fail to grab the second Wild Card spot. They will make a fight for it toward then end of the season but a lack of pitching depth will lead to a disappointing end to the season.

3) Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers fate lies in the hands of superstar left fielder Ryan Braun who was busted for performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) for the second consecutive season. If Braun is proved guilty for PEDs then he will be suspended 50 games by the league. Braun is the heart and sole of the Brewers, without him in the lineup the Brewers will not fair well against any team. hey have one good starter in Yovani Gallardo and an incredibly shaky relief core. But if Braun is proven innocent, then the Brew Crew will have a decent season finishing a few games above .500 but will ultimately fail to make the playoffs by a wide margin. Since this is Braun's second connection to PEDs in two years, things don't look good for the Brewers. I am going on a limb saying that the Brew Crew end in third place.

4) Pittsburgh Pirates: There is no doubt in my mind that center fielder Andrew McCutchen is one of the best overall players in the game today, but the man cannot carry a team on his back without a little support. He needs his fellow players to step up in a huge way so that he can share the load of a grieving city. The Pirates have had a record under .500 for 20 STRAIGHT YEARS. That is probably the saddest statistic I have ever read and it's not going to get any better for them until they find a bigger bat to sign and get the pitching in order. The rotation needs 2 or 3 more quality to help A.J. Burnett and James McDonald. If Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker step up into the spotlight look for the Pirates to overtake the Brewers in the division late in the season, but as for now, I highly doubt it will happen. Poor Andrew McCutchen...

5) Chicago Cubs: The city of Chicago is starting to hate the Cubs, well at least I would be if I were them. This team added some pitching depth in the starting rotation this off season adding Edwin Jackson and Scott Feldman but their problem lies in the issue of scoring runs. Aside from shortstop Starlin Castro the Cubs were awful at getting on base last year. I can see this team losing about 85 to 90 games this season. Their hitting is down right atrocious sometimes. If they add quality infielders then it would be a huge lead forward. But until then the Cub fans will have to wait a few more years for the World Series to reach its doorsteps.

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NL East Prediction

Quote of the day: "Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand" Lou Durocher

Now it's time for the National League. First off, the NL East. The East consists of my favorite team, a serious World Series favorite, an aging team, a team stuck in limbo, and a team that represents the scar on the face of baseball. This divison will likely come down to the final two weeks or so and will excite fans all season long. My predictions below.

1) Washington Nationals: The Nats are a complete team. They were considered heavy favorites to go to the World Series last season but faltered in the playoffs because their best pitcher Steven Strasburg was not in the starting rotation and the lack of experience from the young stars on the roster. But this year, having Strasburg healthier than ever, the Nats will not only win the division, but will also have a legitimate chance of winning the World Series. Shortstop Ian Desmond and outfield phenom Bryce Harper will control a very well balanced lineup. This team will hit very well as well as pitch incredibly efficiently with studs, Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez  and Jordan Zimmerman. The possibility of the Nats losing the division are possible because of the Braves but still, I don't see them giving up their division crown anytime soon.

2) Atlanta Braves: The Braves are my favorite team, I will always love and support them but whilst writing this blog I will never show a bias toward them. If there is one team to derail the chnaces of the Nationals winning the NL East it is the Braves. The Braves lost Hall of Fame 3B Chipper Jones to retirement as well as  losing free agent center fielder Micheal Bourn this off season but made up for it very nicely by adding the Upton brothers in the outfield. B.J. and Justin are two rising stars with loads of athleticism. Adding those two to the an already, formidable lineup, with right fielder, Jason Heyward and first baseman Freedie Freeman, the Braves will look most definitely fly into the playoffs with a the top Wild card spot behind a very solid starting rotation and the best set of relief pitchers in all of baseball. The Braves will make a lot of noise this season, and when they make the layoffs they will be legitimate contenders for the World Series.

3) Philedelphia Phillies: This team is always in the mix to make some noise season after season. Injuries plagued the Phillies last season and it led to a very disappointing season. The Phillies are an aging team with signs of multiple players starting to decline in their careers. Although they have one of the scariest rotations in baseball, headlined Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Cliff Lee the Phillies will need a lot of offensive production from players such as first baseman Ryan Howard and aging shortstop Jimmy Rollins. If that isn't enough to worry about, the Phillies veteran players have openly said that their team lacks a leader among them. I strongly believe that there should be at least one leader in the every club house to guide emerging players in the right direction. If the Phillies lack a leader, then their season will be nothing short of mediocre.

4) New York Mets: Ahhhh the New York Metropoltians. This team has a good core group of guys but they don't seem to win much. This off season they traded away arguably the best pitcher in baseball, R.A. Dickey to the Toronto Blue Jays for a group of prospects that will be ready for the big leagues in the next few years. It is obvious that they are building for the future. They look to rebuild around third baseman David Wright. He is a natural leader and great with the glove as well as the bat. If David Wright continues to play at a high level for the next few years, I see him entering the Hall of Fame with ease. The Mets have an up and coming starting rotation that just need a season or two to actually compete in the division  Until then though, Adding a power bat to the outfield and adding a little bullpen depth will certainly kick start the rebuilding process.  

5) Miami Marlins: No team in the NL will be as bad as the Marlins this year. After spending over $200 million dollars on amazing talent such as Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell; the Marlins did nothing to translate it into success last season. So what do they do? Send away all of that talent to other teams, with a bulk of the players going to the Toronto Blue Jays. The owner of the Marlins, Jeffery Loria has become the scum of baseball because of his awful decisions. Because the core group of players is gone, the Marlins will start a very slow rebuilding process around power house outfielder, Giancarlo Stanton. But still, this season the Miami Marlins will lose at least 100 games. I'm not saying that Miami does not have talent, I'm just saying that there isn't much of it aside from Stanton. I believe that Stanton will hit the most home runs in all of baseball, but it will translate in to nothing. AND they have a disgusting looking stadium.

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AL West Prediction

Thought of the day: Who will the Yankees use in replace of Granderson in left filed for a month?

The AL West is a division that went down to the wire last season, with an unexpected winner. The division has two teams on the rise, a team on the decline, and two teams that will have awful seasons... again. My predictions below.

1) Los Angels Angles of Anaheim: Josh Hamilton is one of the best overall players in baseball. For the Angles to get him is a massive pickup from a disastrous end to the season last year. Sure they lost ace pitcher Zack Grienke to the cross town Dodgers, but by adding Hamilton in center field, the Angels most definitely have the scariest lineup in baseball. With Mike Trout at the top of the lineup and Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and Mark Trumbo at the heart of it, the Angels will hit A LOT of home runs and bail out the pitching throughout the season. Jared Weaver looks to continue his job as the ace of a decently talented starting rotation. He is my pick for the CY Young Award.

2) Oakland Athletics: This team was the most fun to watch last season. They swooped in and stole the AL West crown and "bernied" away. With an insanely low pay roll, manager Bob Melvin's team of young and incredibly talented pitchers dominated the last two months of the season and were legitimate contenders for the World Series. They will do the same exact thing this year with outfielders Yoenis Cespedes and Josh Reddick leading the charge. I can see this tam taking over the Bay Area like Mark McGwire and Jose Canseco did in the 80's this year. This team will clam the first spot in the Wild Card.

3) Texas Rangers: Oh how the might will fall... Losing Josh Hamilton to Angels was the worst thing that the Rangers could have ever thought of happening. I didn't see it happening and neither did they. Thy had a horrible off season losing catcher Mike Napoli and reliever Mike Adams on top of Hamilton's departure. Don't get me wrong. This team still has an incredible defense behind Elvis Andrus at SS and Ian Kinsler at 2B but they do not have the power bat that they had in Hamilton. Hamilton led this team to two World Series in the last three years and to have him not in the lineup will affect this team so much that they will miss the playoffs but finish over .500.

4) Seattle Mariners: Signing Felix Hernandez to a 7 year, $175 million dollar extension was a huge step forward for the Mariners, as well as adding Mike Morse to left field. But still, they have a lack luster offense and no pitching support. This team is moving in the right direction but very slowly. Towards the end of Felix Hernandez's contract is when this team can maybe make some noise in their division. Adding pitching at the trade deadline should help this team be a lot better than they were last year.

5) Houston Astros: I feel bad for this team. They moved from the NL Central to the AL West this season and they will falter mightily. The Astros are in full rebuilding phase and it will take some time. Lucas Harrell is a very promising pitcher as well as second baseman Jose Altuve. This team will be really bad for at least five years. But not as bad as this year. The Astros will lose the most games in all of baseball, at least 105 games. I hate to say it because the team is so young and inexperienced but this team needs to get a veteran pitcher as well as a good veteran bat to help the young players.

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The Basic Breakdown

I realized that I have been writing about my blog without even acknowledging the fact that a lot of my readers probably don’t know much about baseball.  And I am sorry about that. I will try and simplify the rules as well as I can.  Here is a basic breakdown of the sport.

There are 9 innings in a game. Each inning is broken up in a top half and a bottom half. In the top half of an inning the visiting team has a chance to bat, and in the bottom half of the inning the home team bats.

There are 3 outs to each half inning. Outs can be taken by the defensive team in here main ways; getting the batter to hit the ball in the air and be caught (fly out), hit the ball on the ground and throw the ball to the appropriate base (ground out), a strike out (see balls and strikes section).

Three strikes make an out and 4 balls allow the hitter to go to first base. The balls and strikes of the game are determined by the umpire. He is the man standing behind the catcher and he decides which pitch is a ball or a strike. If a player swings at a pitch and misses, it is a strike. A foul ball is also considered a strike. A foul ball is when the hitter makes contact with the ball but the ball goes behind the plate or to the left or right of first base or third base. A pitch count is how you understand what a pitcher has thrown to a batter. It is read from left to right and read as balls and then strikes.

Ex: A 1-0 pitch count reads as, 1 ball and 0 strikes. A 3-2 count (a full count) is the maximum a pitch count can go because, one more ball and the players walks to first base or one more strike and the player strikes out.

A hit is when the batter hits the ball and the defense cannot get the player out by means of a ground out or a fly out. There are 4 types of hits in baseball. A single, a double, a triple, and a home run. Singles are hits that allow the batter to only reach first base.  Doubles and triples work the same way only in regards to second and third base, respectively. Finally, home runs are balls that are hit out of the ball park and into the stands. 

A stolen base is when a player a base, run to the next base before the pitcher can make a pitch to a hitter. 

Ex: Ricky Henderson stole second base from first base.

There are 9 positions on a baseball field.

1)Pitcher-P

2)Catcher-C

3)First Base- 1B

4)Second Base- 2B

5)Third Base- 3B

6)Shortstop-SS

7)Left Field- LF

8)Center Field- LF

9)Right Field- RF

**Designated Hitter-DH

These are the dimensions and other important areas of the baseball diamond.

In my other posts, I wrote about the AL and the NL. These are the two main leagues that make up Major League Baseball. Half of the teams play in the American League and the other half in the National League. Each league is comprised of three divisions, the East, Central, and West divisions. Teams are placed into these divisions based on their respected cities in America. The main difference between the AL and the NL is the fact that instead of the pitcher having a place in the batting lineup, he is replaced by a Designated Hitter, DH. The DH always bats in the place of the pitcher in the lineup because pitcher's usually aren't great hitters. 

Every Major League Baseball roster has 25 players.
8- Position players, a catcher, 4 infielders (1B, 2B, 3B, SS), and 3 Outfielders (CF, LF, RF)
5-Starting pitchers, pitchers that start the game
6- Relief pitchers, pitchers that come into the game when the starters cannot go on
1-Backup catcher
4- Two back up infielders and two outfielders
1- a specialist hitter or a seventh relief pitcher

Teams play 162 games per season and games are simply recorded by a simple win or loss column. 81 games are played at home while the other 81 are played on the road. The more wins a team has, the better the team and the higher chance the team has to go to the playoffs.

I will have a breakdown of the playoffs when the time comes in the season. 

For further explanations visit The baseball Wikipedia page. The link is posted there. 

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AL Central Prediction

Quote of the day: "Every strike brings me closer to the next home run."- Babe Ruth

It's time to move on the next division in the AL;
The AL Central is the only division that has a clear cut winner to predict for the end of the season. 4 of the 5 teams have bad pitching and inconsistent batting. While this off season teams in the AL Central bolstered their lineups with bats, only one added significant pitching to the roster. The bottom three teams will have records under .500 making this division one of the least exciting ones in baseball.

1) Detroit Tigers: The defending AL champions look to defend their title this year and seem like the clear favorites to do so. With Victor Martinez coming back from knee surgery, the lineup is incredibly dangerous with Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, and V-Mart. And on top of that, the pitching staff is easily the best in the game. Ace, Justin Verlander wants to become the first $200 million dollar pitcher so I'm sure he will not let anyone down. With power pitching and electric bats the Tigers will win the division easily.

2) Chicago White Sox: Chris Sale's sliders and fastballs saved this team last year. And aside from a solid season from Jake Peavy the pitching was pretty much non existent. Adam Dunn had a resurgent season and Paul Konerko being consistent as usual the White Sox had a decent season. Look for them to have the same type of season this year, but because of Detroit's dominance, they will have to deal with second place.

3) Cleveland Indians: This team has an alright starting rotation at best. Ubaldo Jimenez has not preformed to the Indians expectations whatsoever, leaving Justin Masterson to be the "ace" of the staff. But replacing Manny Acta with Terry Francona as manager and adding free agents Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher to the outfield bolstered this lineup to be a lot better than it was last year.

4) Kansas City Royals: The Royals added much needed pitching to their staff this off season adding Ervin Santana and James Shields to lead a very young rotation. They lost their top prospect in Wil Myers in the trade for James Shields but they have a young enough lineup to make up for the loss of talent. I think that catcher, Salvador Perez will have his breakout season this year and may even be elected to the All-Star game.

5) Minnesota Twins: Not much can be said about the Twins. Simply put, this is an awful team. Why? The pitching of course. They did nothing this off season to help bolster their already thin rotation except for adding Vance Worley, Kevin Corriea, and Trevor Bauer. And all three are below average pitchers. They lost speedy outfielders Denard Span and Ben Revere to trades to teams in the National League. The only positive thing that they have to look forward to this year is that they will get high draft choice. Joe Mauer's consistent bat, and great defense at catcher can only do so much for the Twins. They will easily lose at least 90 games.

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AL East Prediction

Thought of the day: Where and when will Kyle Lohse sign to a deal?

Spring Training started a couple of weeks ago, and to celebrate, here are my predictions for the regular season. This includes; final standings, and playoff bound teams. Today's focus; the AL East.

This is one of the hardest divisions in baseball. Loaded with power bats and premium pitching. Look for this division to go down to the wire. This division will have the most All-Stars and will have multiple lead changes in the division.

1) Toronto Blue Jays: General Manager Alex Anthopoulos did incredible work acquiring loads of talent from the Miami Marlins for a few prospects and a couple down and out players. Look for a huge season from Josh Johnson and with Jose Reyes at the top of a really balanced lineup, the middle of the order will hit a lot of home runs and score a lot of runs.

2) Tampa Bay Rays: They score a really low amount of runs, but these guys really know how to win. David Price is one of the best left handed pitchers in a while and he only seems to get better. He will lead this team to a Wild Card spot behind a huge season from a very underrated Ben Zolbrist at second base and Evan Longoria.

3) New York Yankees: What can you say about this team? Yea they have a lot of money, but they're insanely old. Jeter, Rivera, Pettite, and A-Rod are on the tail end of their careers. I mean sure, CC Sabathia is a good pitcher but still... how much can one guy do?

4) Boston Red Sox: I want to see this team succeed. I really do. I just think it will take a few years. This team will be outplayed in their own division. Will Middlebrooks at third base is a huge step forward for the Sox.

5) Baltimore Orioles: One of the biggest surprises in recent memory will have only lasted one year. I mean sure, they did great last year but they weren't THAT great, were they? They lost their best pitcher and did nothing in the off season. Matt Wieters will fall to the big task of helping Adam Jones maintain a mediocre offense.

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Post 1, The start of many more to come.

Day 1:

I love baseball. I always have. I like to think I am an expert on the sport and I hope by starting this blog I'll be able to share my know how and opinions on the greatest sport on Earth.
My name is Neil Shelat. I am a triplet of Indian decent. I am very proud of my culture and heritage. I was born in 1993 in Atlanta, Georgia. I am a college student at Georgia State University and I'm studying to be a physical therapist. I lost my ability to play baseball when I was in 11th grade after sliding my knee out of place running  after a fly ball in center field. So instead of playing I decided to analyze the game. I decided to look at stats, mechanics, patterns, and other means of analysis that has allowed me to gain a lot of knowledge on the sport.

Every day I will write about baseball. I will cover news, games, numbers, teams, and players. I am open to debating on any variety of topics, and I will never be afraid to share my opinion. I hope to inform and teach people about the game of baseball. It is my one true passion.

Things to know about me:
1) Favorite baseball team: Atlanta Braves
2) Favorite active baseball player(s): Jason Heyward and Justin Verlander 
3) Favorite all time baseball player(s): Ted Williams, Chipper Jones, Ken Griffey Jr., and Barry Bonds
4) Favorite baseball movie: Field Of Dreams 
5) Favorite sport other than baseball: Football and then basketball
6) Favorite color: Orange
7) Favorite movie: Goodfellas
8) Favorite Bollywood movie: Kal Ho Na Ho  
9) Favorite hobbies after baseball: Dancing, movies, superheroes, and hanging out with family and friends.

Thanks,
Neil Shelat

If you have any questions or comments;
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